So President Obama is the first to declare a campaign for 2012. Of course this is mostly just semantics and technicalities since there are probably half a dozen potential GOP candidates and potentially a couple dissidents in the form of third party (Tea Party) candidates that could declare in due time. With all the speculation of who will match Obama on the Republican side there are some new speculations that Hillary Clinton may enter the race.
So now the speculation begins. How bad does it have to get for Obama before Hillary enters the fray? I just read a great article by John Phillips about how it's inevitable that Hillary will enter the race. His reasoning is sound and I suspect that if Libya becomes the mistake that most of the country believes it is, then Hillary- who has spoken out (and been mostly right) on the subject- may jump into the shark tank as perhaps the biggest fish.
The big question is can she pull off the upset? I think she is strong enough politically to pull it off but only in the event that Obama is weak enough politically. I think the budget crisis, the Libya debacle, and the fact that unemployment is still crazy high is enough to sour the public. The other half of that story could be the price of gas. Gas has more than doubled since Obama took office and his policies haven't helped much given the by-default moratorium on drilling in the Gulf and the wasted time on drilling in ANWR. If things don't make a dramatic turn in the next 6 months Obama may find himself behind in the primaries against a surging and strong Hillary Clinton.
She won't run. She'll bow from the Democratic Party pressure to wait. The party can't afford to suffer the same rancor (read: Tea Party) that's going to trip up the Republicans.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment. In ways I think you're right. She hasn't always bowed down to the Democratic Party though and for that reason I think she's strong willed enough to make the attempt if it looks like Obama is weak enough. Furthermore I think the Democratic Party may even ask her to run if it's looking bad enough for Obama. The rancor in the Republican Party is legit. It's what I would call a cleansing though. It was needed. We'll see if they can pull it together for 2012.
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